Malthus and Climate Change: Betting on a Stable Population

David L. Kelly   and   Charles D. Kolstad*

First Version:   15 March 1996
Current Version:   1 September 1996

ABSTRACT

A standard assumption in integrated assessment of models of climate change is that population and technology are growing, but at a decreasing rate. We explore the significance of the assumption of population and technology growth for greenhouse gas control levels. After all, there has been no long run slow down in the growth of technology over the past few centuries, and the rate of population growth has actually been increasing for the past 19 centuries. Even if either of these growth rates were expected to slow, by how much is subject to great uncertainty. We show computationally that such continued growth greatly increases the severity of climate change. Indeed we find that climate change is a problem in large part "caused" by exogenous population and technology growth. Rapid reductions in growth make climate change a small problem; smaller reductions in growth imply climate change is a very serious problem indeed.


*   Research supported by US Department of Energy grant numbers DE-FG03-94ER61944 and DE-FC03-90ER61010, the latter through the Midwestern Regional Center of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change. We thank Robert Deacon and seminar participants at the 1996 California Workshop on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics for useful comments and suggestions. Research assistance from Aran Ratcliffe is gratefully acknowledged.
Send email to:   Charlie Kolstad,   or the Webmaster